Warrant Play with Merger News strategy - KENCANA

Target Price of the Merger Price for Kencana is RM 3 and current price is 2.94

Kencana CD -
Price = 0.46
Exercise Price 1.5
Conversion Ratio 3






a) Current Warrant Value
 (2.94 - 1.5)/3 = 0.48 ( still profit 2 cents) 4.3%

b) With Target Value of RM 3
(3-1.5)/3 = 0.5 ( Got profit of 4 cents)  8.6%


Kencana CF
price 0.075
Exercise 2.7
Conversion Ratio 3

a) Current Warrant Value
 (2.94 - 2.7)/3 = 0.08 ( still profit 0.005 cents) 6.25%

b) With Target Value of RM 3
(3-2.7)/3 = 0.1 ( Got profit of 0.025 cents) 33%

Kencana - Still in uptrend but can it still hold?

Kim Sa Rang

Well look like overall oil sector are retracing and will Kencana able to hold the pressure?

Observation
1) Trendline - Uptrend Bullish
2) Formed lower high- Bearish
3) MACD -  Bearish Crossover ( Bearish) and waiting for 4R1G for a bullish reversal
4) RSI - Rebound from 70% and retrace ( Bearish)
5) Sto -  Formed bearish crossover and broke below  50%( Bearish)
6) ADX - strong momentum and bullish
7) Candle Stick - Black Candle showing bearish continuation ( Bearish)
8) Volume Distribution - Selling pressure is high as especially in the high volume at the last trading hour. ( Bearish)

6 Points

      2 Points

Conclusion

Winner Bear ( Throw down wrestling style)

Currently majority of the indicator are showing bearish and need for the right timing on the bullish reversal with 

1) MACD - indicate 4R1G

2) Sto rebound from 50% or 30%

3) RSI rebound from 50%

Entry Price 2.86

Resistance at 2.91and 2.96

Support at 2.75

Daily Buy Call in Forum..  (Do not forget to view here for daily Stock Picks)

http://edwinextremebullrun.blogspot.com/search/label/FORUM

KENCANA formed spinning top.. Up or down?

Obersvation
1) Trend Line - Uptrend ( Bullish)
2) HH - Formed Higher Low  at 2.44 on 11 Feb ( Bullish)
3) Candlestick - Formed Spinning top ( Indecisive whether bull or bear)
4) MACD - Still Bearish and awaiting for Crossover ( Bearish)
5) RSI - Going up to 62% and broke the 50% on 17 Feb ( Bullish)
6) ADX - Momentum weak and bullish

Conclusion
New Entry Price = 2.7 for those who did not enter at 2.58
Stop Loss at = Trailing Stop Loss at 2.48
Take Profit at 2.67 (R1) - 50%  and  2.96 (R2) the rest...

Kencana testing 2.67 resistance

Will Kencana Follow Dialog Foot step and boom up? I would not say it is 100% but there is high chances ... 60% ( that is my current level) to go up...

Observation
1) Trendline - Uptrend ( Bullish)
2) HH - Formed higher low at 2.44 and going up ( Bullish) and by break 2.67 ( Higher high) will indicate strong bull run.
3) Candlestick- Formed small harami ( Slightly Bullish)
4) MACD - Still Bearish and awaiting for Golden Crossover for Bullish Confirmation
5) RSI -  Going up to 55% and broke out from 50% ( Bullish)
6) ADX - Momentum Weak and bearish

Conclusion
High chances of bullish attack but need to follow the stop loss..

Entry Price - 2.52 ( Risky)
                    2.58 (Safe)
Stop Loss - 2.3
Take Profit - 2.96 ( 20%) - sweet

and follow the Stop Loss n Take Profit for warrant at here
http://edwinextremebullrun.blogspot.com/search/label/FORUM

Will Kencana rebound up on Monday

One of the laggard counter since it drops a lot compared to its peer in O/G sector.

Observation
1) Trend Line -   Major Trend line - Bullish
                          Minor Trend Line - Bearish Temporary

2) HH - Formed Lower High at 2.65 (Bearish)
3) MACD - Retracing (Bearish) and waiting for 4R1G for strong reversal hopefully by 17 Feb 2011
4) RSI - Retracing towards 30% ( Bearish) and waiting for rebound at 30% for reversal
5) ADX - Average Momentum  with Bearish Signal


Conclusion
This counter is temporary downtrend and waiting for strong signal for reversal

Entry Price - 2.52 ( Risky)
                    2.58 (Safe)
Stop Loss - 2.3
Take Profit - 2.96 ( 20%) - sweet.. Time to punt on Kencana Warrant :) if the KLSE sentiment reverse for bull run..

Cut loss on Kencana

Everybody ask why i cut loss and why do not hold this longer. Well i rather cut loss to lose a bit and then collect lower and earn more.

Observation
1) Trendline - Broke far away from the uptrend line and will start to create a downtrend line temporary (BEARISH)
2) LL - Broke the previous Higher Low at 2.52 (BEARISH)
3) MACD - The blue line is getting further lower than the red line ( Bearish) and look at the Red histrogram getting longer
4) RSI - Plunging down quickly toward 50% (Bearish)
5) ADX - At momentum 49 and bearish - Bearish strong

Conclusion
Stop loss and wait for another sign of reversal towards next support at 2.47 and 2.35. So rather than losing money and hold until 2.35 and rebound i rather cut loss at 2.5 and the buy again at 2.35 if rebound and once reach to 2.5 at least i earn money compared to break even :)

Testing the uptrend line will Kencana Survived.

Observation
1) Trend Line - Broke the Uptrend line at 2.65 and close at 2.59. Monday will be a decision point whether this counter will rebound or continue to downtrend because heavily supported by support line and by 20d ma at 2.58
2) HH - Still above the previous higher low 2.5
3) MACD - Bearish and waiting for 4R1G for reversal point
4) RSI - Broke the 70% line and bearish
5) ADX - At high momentum and bearish

Conclusion

Entry Price = 2.7 ( Above uptrend line)
Stop loss = 2.5 ( Previous Higher Low)
Take Profit = 2.96 (R1) and 3.2 (R2)

Kencana

One of the champion runner from oil and gas sector

Observation
1) Uptrend - Still in uptrend line and watch out the support line 2.58 ( New Fibonaci Line after setting new higher high at 2.96

2) HH - Set a new higher high at 2.96 and now retracing. Previous HL was at 2.5 and need to watchout
3) MACD - Showing slight retracement after 4G1R on the Jan 13.
4) RSI - Overbought and now going to break below 70% rsi for slight retracement
5) ADX - At 50 which have big momentum and if it continues to retracement it will be very fast

Conclusion
Ready to accumulate some around 2.6 ~ 2.55 and please be ready to cut loss if it break the higher low at 2.5 which this will indicate a strong reversal to downtrend
Buy on weakness and accumulate until it break the next resistance at 2.96

My 2011 Portfolio

Sold my Kencana-CC - sold at 0.58 700lots. Sadly why i did not sell at the peak or abouve 0.64 when Kencana shot up to 0.96.

Greedy Factor take place and is where i need to train my mental and emotion to sell once reach our targets

Based on the chart yesterday our Resistance was at 2.89 and 2.97. If there is any reversal we should take profit at least 50% and if goes lower and sell the other 50% but if it goes up we can gain extra profit from it.

Now with the black candle in place, we can expect high chances this counter will take further profit taking and let try to accumulate more and lower portion 2.64 and 2.5 because for long term this will be a profit sector and counter but we need to make profit most out of it by buying when it goes up and then take profit when it goes down.

Kencana

FANTASTIC RUN by KENCANA. This is what i call Extreme Bull Run Category haha..

I bought 700lots on Kencana-CC and hope will gain 10% before CNY
This counter is currently at updated skyrocket up up